Happy Monday everyone!
As you should know by now the 2019-20 NHL season is on pause due to the on going COVID-19 pandemic. It’s an unprecedented time across the globe and I hope everyone is finding a way to be safe, while staying home and trying to enjoy the countless older hockey games Sportsnet is providing us with.
As some countries begin to re-open their economies, the spread of the coronavirus seems to be slowing down slightly. In my eyes, while it is “safe” in some countries, states, and provinces, overall were still going to be in this pandemic for quite a while. But that doesn’t mean we cant begin to speculate what hockey and sports may look like until we are able to get a vaccine, and return to arenas to watch our favorite teams. I’m going to discuss where I think the NHL should go from this point forward when it comes to trying to finish the 2019-20 season as well as the draft, and how to plan for the 2020-21 season.
Firstly, I think if it is safe to, and testing becomes widely available to the point where the NHL is able to provide enough to teams, then the NHL should no doubtingly return. I know some people are going to disagree with me, and want the season scrapped but sports provide a getaway for people who are trying to forget about work and other things in their lives. Sports make people happy, they boost morale, and help with mental health. When sports return, we will only be able to watch on our TV’s for the time being, but that is much better than the current state of where were at.
One idea being floated around, and I believe it has been presented as the most ideal option from the NHL to teams, is to have teams play in hub cities (3/4 cities hosting 8-10 teams or so) in states or provinces that are recovering from COVID-19 at a better rate than others. A few cities I have heard as potential hosts are Raleigh, South Carolina; Edmonton, Alberta; Las Vegas, Nevada; Glendale, Arizona; and Dallas, Texas.
At first, I wasn’t a big fan of this hub city idea, having 8 to 10 teams in 1 city sounds like a logistical nightmare. From finding hotels to house the players, staff, media, etc, as well as making sure some of these arenas are able to create ice during summer months, and upwards of 3 games a day being played on that ice sounds like it could be a disaster waiting to happen. But then I started to think to myself, is there really any other option to get the season finished? I honestly can’t think of another option. Does the NHL want to finish the regular season or jump straight into the playoffs? Absolutely they do want to finish the regular season, the more games that are being played, the more money the league is making off TV deals, sponsorship’s, etc. I also heard that if the NHL decides they are going to cancel the rest of the season, they will lose around 200-300 million in TV and sponsorship revenue in just the playoffs alone. I can already tell losing that amount of money is keeping Gary Bettman up at night. I think the NHL should finish the regular season (most teams have 10-13 games remaining) in 4 host cities, and then narrow it down to 2 host cities for the playoffs, one per conference. The reason why the regular season needs to be completed is due to the close playoff races, specifically in the Pacific division, as well as the money the NHL needs from TV deals and sponsorship. If you jump right into the playoffs, you will have teams that are a couple points out of a spot be up in arms and freak out over losing their chance to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
With all that being said, I will repeat again, the only way I am okay with the NHL returning, is if local, and federal health officials say it is safe to, and if testing is widely available to players, staff, media, etc.
Lets talk about the draft now, as it has been a hot topic the last number of days and rightfully so.
So as of writing this blog, the NHL is planning on making a decision on an early June draft at some point this week. In my eyes their are 2 options when it comes to the 2020 NHL draft. One is having the draft in early June, the other is to hold it at the conclusion of the 2019-20 season, which might not be until late August/early September. I am leaning more towards having the draft in early June, rather than the fall, but there are problems with both draft ideas, no matter which direction the NHL chooses to go some people and some teams aren’t going to be happy.
The problem with holding a draft in early June (June 5th the likely date) is the obvious, the season hasnt been concluded, therefore how do you determine the draft order? Also, what happens to draft picks that have playoff implications tied to them?
According to a memo sent from the NHL to teams, the draft lottery will go back to it’s old format where teams can only potentially jump up 4 spots. For example, the Detroit Red Wings, who are currently dead last in the NHL standings, they can pick no worst than 2nd overall. The Ottawa Senators, who have potentially 3 first round picks (including San Jose’s which was acquired in the Erik Karlsson trade, and a conditional 1st round pick acquired from the New York Islanders in the Pageau trade), could potentially select 3rd AND 4th overall, which would be a huge boost for their rebuild. Technically, if this the route the NHL is going, the Alexis Lafreniere sweepstakes are down to Detroit, Ottawa (x2), Los Angeles, and Anaheim.
As for conditional draft picks with playoff implications, the NHL is reportedly going to allow teams to re-work their deals in order to make an early June draft possible. What those restructured deals may look like, I have no clue, but it is something that will be interesting to follow over the coming weeks should the NHL proceed with a draft next month.
Here is my problem with a fall draft at the conclusion of the season. Most European leagues and the CHL begin their seasons or training camps in mid to late August. Are those leagues and teams really going to make their prospects that are eligible for the 2020 draft show up to training camp, play pre-season games, regular season games, fly to wherever the draft is (likely will be a virtual draft, similar to what the NFL did), attend an NHL training camp, and potentially make their NHL team? If I were the coach or GM of Alder Mannheim, who is the home to top prospect Tim Stutzle, I would be frustrated over that whole situation, especially if my team was having a very strong start to the season, then to lose their best player, and have the rest of their season’s success in question. Again, its a tough situation overall, I’m more than confident Mannheim’s coach and GM will be thrilled to see Stutzle get drafted into the NHL, but will be frustrated as well to see him have to leave part way through their season.
Gary Bettman has been adamant that he wants the 2020-21 season to start on time and to play all 82 games, and if he has to cancel the rest of this season to do so, then he will. I tend to agree, although COVID-19 will be circulating in communities until we get a vaccine, it is imperative that next season is played in full, even if it means without fans for the first few months. The potential loss of TV and sponsorship revenue, as I mentioned earlier, would be detrimental for the league.
Then late last week, Bettman stated the league would be open to starting next season in December, play a full 82 games, and start the playoffs likely in June, with the Stanley Cup finals slated for July 2021. Again, not a bad option, it buys the league a couple months in where a vaccine could be ready for mass production in January 2021, per the U.S. Government, and there would be as minimal games as possible held behind closed doors. The downfalls of having the season start in December would be the loss of the bye-weeks for teams, no All-star game, and a shorter holiday break.
Okay, that was a lot of information to take in. In the coming weeks, and months we will find out more regarding the current season, and when/how it will restart. In the meantime, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the current match-ups should the NHL jump right into the playoffs.
Eastern Conference. (A- Atlantic; M- Metropolitan; WC- Wild Card)
(A1) Boston vs (WC2) Columbus; (A2) Tampa Bay vs (A3) Toronto; (M1) Washington vs (WC1) Carolina; (M2) Philadelphia vs (M3) Pittsburgh.
Western Conference. (C- Central; P- Pacific; WC- Wild Card)
(C1) St. Louis vs (WC2) Nashville; (C2) Colorado vs (C3) Dallas; (P1) Vegas vs (WC1) Winnipeg; (P2) Edmonton vs (P3) Calgary.
Battle of Pennsylvania? Battle of Alberta? Re-match of the 2018 Western Conference final? Count me in!
-Cooper