Last night was one of the strangest moments in NHL draft lottery history. I mean, it’s 2020 after all, with everything that has happened so far this year in the world it doesn’t shock me that a placeholder team won the lottery.
Yes, you heard that correctly. A placeholder team, more specifically, Team E, won last nights draft lottery.
What this means is that one of the 8 losing teams in the NHL’s qualifying round of the Stanley Cup playoffs will get the chance to pick 1st overall in the 2020 NHL draft.
Let’s dive into who could get that pick, some conditions we have to wait for regarding a few first round picks, as well as the odds every team had to get 1st overall last night.
Here is a quick reminder of the 16 teams participating in the NHL’s qualifying round.
In the East: (5) Pittsburgh vs (12) Montreal; (6) Carolina vs (11) New York R; (7) New York I vs (10) Florida; (8) Toronto vs (9) Columbus.
In the West: (5) Edmonton vs (12) Chicago; (6) Nashville vs (11) Arizona; (7) Vancouver vs (10) Minnesota; (8) Calgary vs (9) Winnipeg.
The 4 losing teams from the West, and 4 from the East will participate in phase 2 of the 2020 NHL draft lottery to determine who gets 1st overall. Each of the 8 teams in phase 2 will have an equal 12.5% chance of getting the first pick.
There are still some issues up in the air regarding conditional 1st round picks, but those will be solved following the NHL’s qualifying round.
-The New Jersey Devils will receive a 1st round pick from Arizona in 2020, if Arizona’s pick is Top 3, New Jersey will get Arizona’s 1st round pick in 2021.
-New York Rangers will receive the later of Carolina or Toronto’s 1st round pick in 2020 if Carolina acquires the Maple Leafs’ 1st round pick in 2020. If Carolina does not receive Toronto’s 1st round pick, then the Rangers will acquire Carolina’s 1st round pick.
-Ottawa will receive a 1st round pick from the New York Islanders in 2020, if the Islanders’ pick is Top 3, Ottawa will get New York’s 1st round pick in 2021.
-Minnesota will receive a 1st round pick from Pittsburgh if the Penguins qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs. If Pittsburgh fails to qualify for the playoffs that 1st round pick will be given to Minnesota in 2021.
-Carolina will receive a 1st round pick from Toronto in 2020, if Toronto’s pick is Top 3, Carolina will get Toronto’s 1st round pick in 2021.
-New Jersey will receive a 1st round pick from Vancouver if the Cancucks qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs. If Vancouver fails to qualify for the playoffs that 1st round pick will be given to New Jersey in 2021.
Before we get to the odds for who could have gotten 1st overall prior to last night’s draw, I should mention what will happen if the NHL doesn’t return to play this season, and how it will work for the 1st overall pick.
If the NHL can not return to play this season, the next lowest 8 teams in the standings based off points percentage will participate in phase 2 of the NHL draft lottery. All 8 teams would still have a 12.5% chance of getting 1st overall.
The 8 teams are (points percentage in brackets): 8. Montreal (.500); 9. Chicago (.514); 10. Arizona (.529); 11. Minnesota (.558); 12. Winnipeg (.563); 13. New York Rangers (.564); 14. Florida (.565); 15. Columbus (.579).
Finally, prior to last night’s draw these were the odds of each team getting 1st overall.
- Detroit (18.5%); 2. Ottawa (13.5%); 3. Ottawa via SJS (11.5%); 4. Los Angeles (9.5%); 5. Anaheim (8.5%); 6. New Jersey (7.5%); 7. Buffalo (6.5%); 8. Team A (6%); 9. Team B (5%); 10. Team C (3.5%); 11. Team D (3%); 12. Team E (2.5%); 13. Team F (2%); 14. Team G (1.5%); 15. Team H (1%).
Team E, who had a 2.5% chance of winning the draft lottery, won. But overall, the placeholder spots held a 24.5% chance of winning, the 2nd highest odds. Ottawa had a combined 25% chance of winning giving them the best odds, and Detroit with the 3rd highest odds at 18.5%.
We’re in for a great summer of hockey. Less than 2 weeks until the opening of training camps!
Thanks for reading.
-Cooper.